Generated 2026-02-27 22:31:11 UTC · Buys divergence >15¢ from category base rate. 64% backtest hit rate, 7d correction.
| Market | Side | Entry | Current | Unreal. PnL | Size | Held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will-terri-pickens-win-the-2026-idaho-governor-democra… | NO | 0 | 0.795 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-byron-donalds-be-the-republican-nominee-for-flori… | NO | 0 | 0.800 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-chong-won-oh-win-the-2026-seoul-mayoral-election | NO | 0 | 0.815 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-graham-platner-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-sena… | NO | 0 | 0.775 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-mar… | NO | 0 | 0.710 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-jim-pillen-win-the-2026-nebraska-governor-republi… | NO | 0 | 0.720 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-cinde-warmington-win-the-2026-new-hampshire-gover… | NO | 0 | 0.710 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-keisha-lance-bottoms-win-the-2026-georgia-governo… | NO | 0 | 0.710 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-cdu-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttembe… | NO | 0 | 0.680 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| will-the-republicans-win-the-nebraska-senate-race-in-2… | NO | 0 | 0.710 | — | $5.0 | 9h 41m |
| Total Unrealized: | $0.00 | |||||
No closed trades yet.
| Entry Threshold | Market price diverges >15¢ from category base rate; volume < $5K |
| Position Sizing | $5/trade fixed |
| Take Profit | UNDERPRICED: base_rate − 5¢ target; OVERPRICED: base_rate + 5¢ target |
| Stop Loss | SL: 12¢ from base rate (opposite direction) |
| Time Stop | 7 days |
| Max Positions | No global limit |
| Max Per Market | 1 per market |
| Run Frequency | Every 4h (new-market.timer) |
| Current Version | 1 |
| Bot File | infra/new_market_bot.py |
| Service | — |
| Timer | new-market.timer |
Generated: 2026-02-27 08:41:29 · Overall YES rate (excl. sports): 38.3% (n=23,084)
| Category | YES Rate | Sample Size | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| crypto | 42.8% | 6,974 | high |
| economics | 29.1% | 299 | high |
| entertainment | 28.4% | 236 | high |
| geopolitical | 30.5% | 1,097 | high |
| other | 42.8% | 10,048 | high |
| science_tech | 22.9% | 2,286 | high |
| sports | 29.9% | 1,932 | high |
| trump | 34.7% | 698 | high |
| us_politics | 20.8% | 1,446 | high |
| Service | 🔴 new-market — inactive (dead) |
| Timer | 🟢 new-market.timer — active |
| Last Trigger | — |
| Next Trigger | — |
Last 3 log lines:
Not enough data for chart (need 3+ closed trades)