Generated 2026-02-27 22:31:13 UTC · Position trading on polling-market divergence. Smart exits by time-to-resolution.
| Market | Side | Entry | Current | Unreal. PnL | Size | Held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his… | NO | 0.695 | 0.320 | +$5.40 | $10.0 | 4h 5m |
| will-trump-nominate-judy-shelton-as-the-next-fed-chair | YES | 0.0415 | 0.043 | +$0.24 | $10.0 | 4h 5m |
| will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-by-march-31 | YES | 0.065 | 0.065 | $0.00 | $10.0 | 4h 5m |
| will-trump-resign-by-december-31-2026 | YES | 0.065 | 0.065 | $0.00 | $10.0 | 4h 5m |
| will-trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell | YES | 0.095 | 0.090 | -$0.53 | $10.0 | 4h 5m |
| will-trump-nominate-kevin-warsh-as-the-next-fed-chair | NO | 0.0695 | 0.935 | -$124.60 | $10.0 | 4h 5m |
| Total Unrealized: | -$119.49 | |||||
No closed trades yet.
| Entry Threshold | Divergence > 0.20; confidence ≥ MED; volume > $10K |
| Position Sizing | $10/trade (SHORT <30d), $7 (MED 30-90d), $5 (LONG >90d) |
| Take Profit | 75% of divergence correction; time-scaled exits near resolution |
| Stop Loss | None; forced exit if our score flips direction |
| Time Stop | Graduated by time bucket (SHORT/MED/LONG) |
| Max Positions | No global limit |
| Max Per Market | 1 per market |
| Run Frequency | Every 4h (political-pf.timer) |
| Current Version | 1 |
| Bot File | infra/political_fundamentals_bot.py |
| Service | — |
| Timer | political-pf.timer |
Updated: 2026-02-27 20:00:56 · 260 markets scored · top 20 by |divergence|
| Market | Mkt Price | Our Score | Divergence | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in F… | 0.886 | 0.207 | -0.679 | LOW |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midte… | 0.845 | 0.207 | -0.638 | LOW |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? POS | 0.065 | 0.700 | +0.635 | MED |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 20… | 0.833 | 0.207 | -0.625 | LOW |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | 0.968 | 0.347 | -0.621 | LOW |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? | 0.959 | 0.347 | -0.612 | LOW |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential… | 0.815 | 0.207 | -0.608 | LOW |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governo… | 0.800 | 0.207 | -0.593 | LOW |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 0.930 | 0.347 | -0.583 | LOW |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? POS | 0.043 | 0.620 | +0.577 | MED |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Main… | 0.775 | 0.207 | -0.568 | LOW |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026? | 0.910 | 0.347 | -0.563 | LOW |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | 0.770 | 0.207 | -0.563 | LOW |
| Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? | 0.036 | 0.550 | +0.513 | MED |
| Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korea… | 0.958 | 0.450 | -0.508 | LOW |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? | 0.045 | 0.550 | +0.505 | MED |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 0.710 | 0.207 | -0.503 | LOW |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.550 | +0.485 | MED |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats … | 0.930 | 0.450 | -0.480 | LOW |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | 0.685 | 0.207 | -0.478 | LOW |
| Service | 🔴 political-pf — inactive (dead) |
| Timer | 🟢 political-pf.timer — active |
| Last Trigger | — |
| Next Trigger | — |
Last 3 log lines:
Not enough data for chart (need 3+ closed trades)