Generated 2026-03-04 16:02:12 UTC · All data read directly from bot output files · PAPER MODE
| Status | Strategy | Trades | Open | Closed | WR | R:R | EV/Trade | PnL | Last Trade | Data Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAPER | Strategy CM — Cross-Market Arb Finds logically impossible price combinations across 5,000+ markets. Bets on guaranteed correction. |
4 | 3 | 1 | 100.0% (WR (v9)) | — | $2.2500 | +$2.25 | 2026-03-04 13:10 | 51m ago |
| PAPER | Strategy 1B — BTC Momentum BTC Up/Down 15m/1h/4h. Entry 0.80-0.95. BE WR: ~85% at sweet spot. |
37 | 0 | 37 | 91.9% (WR (all versions)) | 0.21 | $0.4532 | +$16.77 | 2026-03-04 15:26 | 29m ago |
| PAPER | Strategy 4 — Hype Reversion Buys NO on YES price spikes. Sells hype. Geo filters + crisis regime. |
7 | 0 | 7 | 85.7% (WR (v6)) | 0.12 | $-0.0891 | -$0.62 | 2026-03-04 08:20 | 7h 41m ago |
| PAPER | Event Clusters |
30 | 27 | 3 | 100.0% (WR) | — | $4.0733 | +$12.22 | 2026-03-03 20:30 | 9h 31m ago |
| PAPER | Fear Fade (FF2) Geopolitical/military/catastrophe fear spikes fade on unlikely events. Buy NO when YES < 20%. |
1 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% (WR (v1)) | — | $0.0402 | +$0.04 | 2026-03-04 08:01 | 8h 1m ago |
| PAPER | CG-TT: Trump Triggers Event-driven: Trump actions trigger connected market mispricings. |
0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | $0.00 | — | 6h 1m ago |
| PAPER | CG-GEO: Geopolitical Chains Event-driven: geopolitical events trigger connected market mispricings. |
0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | $0.00 | — | 6h 1m ago |
| PAPER | CG-POL: Political Cascades Event-driven: political events trigger connected election/policy market mispricings. |
0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | $0.00 | — | 6h 1m ago |
| Agent | Role | Model | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob | COO — Orchestration & Delegation | claude-opus-4-6 | Active |
| Elon | CTO — Engineering (Ralph loops) | claude-sonnet-4-6 | On-demand |
| Quant | Discovery & Pattern Recognition | claude-opus-4-6 | On-demand |
| Analyst | Research & Validation | claude-sonnet-4-6 | On-demand |
| Bot | Strategy | Frequency | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Cross Market Bot | CM | Every 2h (cross-market.timer) | active |
| 🟢 Strategy1B Bot | 1B | Continuous long-running service | active |
| 🟢 Strategy4 Bot | S4 | Hype monitor: every 4h | active |
| 🟢 Cluster Runner Bot | ECP | — | active |
| 🟢 Fear Fade Bot | FF2 | Every 2h (fear-fade.timer) | active |
| 🟢 Causal Graph Engine Bot | CG-TT, CG-GEO, CG-POL | Every 15min (causal-graph.timer) | active |
| Service | Purpose | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Strategy Engine | Validate + Discover (4h) | active |
| 🟢 Watchdog | Health checks (15m) | active |
| 🟢 BTC WS Relay | BTC price feed | active |
| 🟢 Polymarket WS Relay | Market prices | active |
| 🟢 Crypto Collector | BTC market data | active |
| 🟢 Dashboard | Auto-deploy (30m) | active |
| 🟢 Auto Backup | Git push (6h) | active |
| Strategy | Market | Side | Entry | Now | Unreal. PnL | Size | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CM |
CM-001 L1: US recession by end of 2026? | YES | 0.23 | 0.230 | $0.00 | $10.0 | 2026-03-04 11:10 |
CM |
CM-002 L1: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | YES | 0.235 | 0.255 | +$0.85 | $10.0 | 2026-03-04 11:10 |
CM |
CM-003 L1: Iran nuclear test before 2027? | YES | 0.12 | 0.115 | -$0.42 | $10.0 | 2026-03-04 11:10 |
S4 |
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? | ? | 0.14 | 0.145 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 00:09 |
S4 |
Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 20… | ? | 0.138 | 0.107 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 00:09 |
S4 |
Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 20… | ? | 0.138 | 0.107 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 00:09 |
S4 |
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? | ? | 0.102 | 0.013 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 04:09 |
S4 |
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? | ? | 0.0605 | 0.007 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 04:09 |
S4 |
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? | ? | 0.059 | 0.004 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 04:09 |
S4 |
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? | ? | 0.0795 | 0.028 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 04:09 |
S4 |
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic nominee for Sen… | ? | 0.1155 | 0.128 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 04:09 |
S4 |
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | NO | 0.1055 | 0.005 | +$42.13 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 07:10 |
S4 |
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | NO | 0.1055 | 0.005 | +$42.13 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 07:10 |
S4 |
Will TikTok be banned by March 31? | NO | 0.1065 | 0.028 | +$40.63 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 11:10 |
S4 |
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | NO | 0.0695 | 0.101 | +$59.68 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 11:10 |
S4 |
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026… | NO | 0.088 | 0.263 | +$36.88 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 16:43 |
S4 |
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election i… | NO | 0.1405 | 0.097 | +$27.14 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:43 |
S4 |
Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republi… | NO | 0.071 | 0.009 | +$64.79 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 00:43 |
S4 |
Deel IPO before 2027? | NO | 0.13 | 0.170 | +$26.92 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 08:43 |
S4 |
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | NO | 0.1375 | 0.079 | +$28.49 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 12:43 |
S4 |
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of… | NO | 0.13 | 0.055 | +$31.35 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 12:43 |
S4 |
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? | NO | 0.109 | 0.053 | +$38.44 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 16:43 |
S4 |
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | NO | 0.115 | 0.059 | +$35.89 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 16:43 |
S4 |
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? | NO | 0.113 | 0.108 | +$34.45 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 16:43 |
ECP |
Will Jean Philippe Krasso be the top goal scorer in th… | NO | 0.702 | 0.170 | +$0.91 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Breel Embolo be the top goal scorer in the 2025-2… | NO | 0.704 | 0.292 | +$0.02 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Terem Moffi be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26… | NO | 0.705 | 0.290 | +$0.03 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina T… | NO | 0.4955 | 0.635 | -$1.32 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the … | NO | 0.2 | 0.825 | -$0.62 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Cale Makar win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Mem… | NO | 0.58 | 0.475 | -$0.47 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in steals during the 20… | NO | 0.706 | 0.257 | +$0.27 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Matthew Schaefer win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Mem… | NO | 0.05 | 0.960 | -$1.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal score… | NO | 0.31 | 0.665 | +$0.40 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made… | NO | 0.79 | 0.175 | +$0.22 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 202… | NO | 0.235 | 0.780 | -$0.32 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved P… | NO | 0.4895 | 0.594 | -$0.85 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Metropolitan Divi… | NO | 0.046 | 0.849 | +$11.41 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best re… | NO | 0.38 | 0.629 | -$0.12 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for S… | NO | 0.195 | 0.800 | +$0.13 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:41 |
ECP |
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 20… | NO | 0.105 | 0.890 | +$0.24 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 20:47 |
ECP |
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2… | NO | 0.21 | 0.820 | -$0.71 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 22:30 |
ECP |
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–… | NO | 0.0785 | 0.922 | -$0.06 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 22:30 |
ECP |
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Tro… | NO | 0.515 | 0.480 | +$0.05 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 00:31 |
ECP |
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Play… | NO | 0.2845 | 0.704 | +$0.21 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 02:31 |
ECP |
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2… | NO | 0.73 | 0.285 | -$0.10 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 06:30 |
ECP |
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Tr… | NO | 0.5995 | 0.332 | +$0.58 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 06:30 |
ECP |
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Electio… | NO | 0.465 | 0.545 | -$0.11 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 08:31 |
ECP |
Will Naz Reid win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Y… | NO | 0.4535 | 0.530 | +$0.18 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 12:31 |
ECP |
Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in… | NO | 0.14 | 0.895 | -$1.25 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 14:31 |
ECP |
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'R… | NO | 0.337 | 0.664 | -$0.02 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 18:30 |
ECP |
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig? | NO | 0.295 | 0.705 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 20:30 |
FF2 |
NATO Article 5 by March 31? | ? | 0.0685 | 0.058 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 00:09 |
FF2 |
Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? | ? | 0.119 | 0.086 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 00:09 |
FF2 |
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? | ? | 0.094 | 0.108 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 00:09 |
FF2 |
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? | ? | 0.074 | 0.018 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 00:09 |
FF2 |
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | ? | 0.065 | 0.048 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 04:09 |
FF2 |
NATO Article 5 by March 31? | ? | 0.118 | 0.058 | $0.00 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 04:09 |
FF2 |
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 3… | NO | 0.091 | 0.037 | +$47.91 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 07:10 |
FF2 |
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? | NO | 0.142 | 0.089 | +$27.08 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 12:43 |
FF2 |
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | NO | 0.107 | 0.048 | +$39.49 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 12:43 |
FF2 |
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? | NO | 0.076 | 0.041 | +$58.09 | $5.0 | 2026-03-02 12:43 |
FF2 |
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2… | NO | 0.13 | 0.105 | +$29.42 | $5.0 | 2026-03-03 04:43 |
| Strategy | Market | Side | Entry | PnL | Status | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1B |
btc-updown-15m-1772637300 | YES | 0.855 | +$0.85 | resolved |
2026-03-04T15:26:25 |
1B |
btc-updown-15m-1772636400 | YES | 0.815 | +$1.13 | resolved |
2026-03-04T15:12:37 |
CM |
will-fomo-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026 | YES | 0.24 | +$2.25 | CLOSED |
2026-03-04T13:10:01 |
S4 |
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | NO | 0.1375 | +$0.33 | CLOSED |
2026-03-04T08:20:31 |
S4 |
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of… | NO | 0.13 | +$0.37 | CLOSED |
2026-03-04T08:20:31 |
FF2 |
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2… | NO | 0.13 | +$0.04 | CLOSED |
2026-03-04T08:01:01 |
1B |
btc-updown-15m-1772606700 | YES | 0.875 | +$0.71 | resolved |
2026-03-04T06:56:32 |
1B |
btc-updown-15m-1772604900 | YES | 0.835 | +$0.99 | resolved |
2026-03-04T06:28:34 |
1B |
btc-updown-15m-1772593200 | YES | 0.865 | +$0.78 | resolved |
2026-03-04T03:12:09 |
S4 |
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | NO | 0.1375 | +$0.13 | CLOSED |
2026-03-04T00:20:25 |
S4 |
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of… | NO | 0.13 | +$0.06 | CLOSED |
2026-03-04T00:20:25 |
1B |
btc-updown-15m-1772577900 | YES | 0.805 | +$1.21 | resolved |
2026-03-03T22:58:05 |
1B |
btc-updown-15m-1772573400 | YES | 0.815 | +$1.13 | resolved |
2026-03-03T21:42:01 |
S4 |
Will TikTok be banned by March 31? | NO | 0.1065 | +$0.27 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T20:13:17 |
S4 |
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026… | NO | 0.088 | -$2.09 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T20:13:17 |
S4 |
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? | NO | 0.109 | +$0.31 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T20:13:17 |
1B |
btc-updown-15m-1772544600 | YES | 0.885 | +$0.65 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T13:44:17 |
S4 |
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? | NO | 0.0795 | +$0.25 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T12:43:48 |
FF2 |
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? | NO | 0.142 | +$0.19 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T08:43:43 |
ECP |
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Tr… | NO | 0.5995 | +$0.35 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T06:30:20 |
ECP |
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Play… | NO | 0.2845 | +$1.05 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T02:31:00 |
FF2 |
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? | NO | 0.076 | -$0.06 | CLOSED |
2026-03-03T00:43:36 |
FF2 |
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | NO | 0.065 | +$0.15 | CLOSED |
2026-03-02T20:43:32 |
ECP |
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Metropolitan Divi… | NO | 0.046 | +$10.82 | CLOSED |
2026-03-02T20:41:59 |
FF2 |
NATO Article 5 by March 31? | NO | 0.0685 | +$0.09 | CLOSED |
2026-03-02T16:43:28 |
| Service | Status | Last Activity | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 | OpenClaw Gateway | active |
2026-03-04T15:28:36.436Z [telegram] [default] starting provider (@BobFeb26_bot) |
| 🟢 | Crypto Collector | active |
ed markets from API, checking against 4908 known markets (4676 already resolved) |
| 🟢 | Strategy 1B Bot | active |
:00 srv1356548 python3[207188]: [2026-03-04T16:02:12Z] BTC $73,480.77 (ws_relay) |
| 🟢 | Strategy 4 Bot | active |
03-04T12:20:35+00:00 srv1356548 strategy4[273062]: Sleeping 4h until next run... |
| 🟢 | BTC WebSocket Relay | active |
3-04 16:01:34] STATUS: 61 msgs in 61s (1.0/s) | reconnects=0 | source=binance_ws |
| 🟢 | Chrome Browser | active |
apis/gcm/engine/mcs_client.cc:748] Received close command, resetting connection. |
| 🔴 | Hype Monitor (4h) | inactive |
6548 systemd[1799]: Stopped hype-monitor.timer - Run hype monitor every 4 hours. |
| 🔴 | Mention Arb (6h) | inactive |
d[1799]: Stopped mention-arb.timer - Run mention arbitrage bot every 30 minutes. |
| 🟢 | Nightly Consolidation | active |
rted nightly-consolidation.timer - Nightly knowledge consolidation at 03:00 UTC. |
| 🔴 | NM Scanner (4h) | inactive |
pped new-market.timer - Run Strategy NM new market mispricing bot every 4 hours. |
| 🔴 | Political Scorer (4h) | inactive |
9]: Stopped political-scorer.timer - Run Political Scoring Engine every 4 hours. |
| 🔴 | PR Bot (1h) | inactive |
99]: Stopped political-pr.timer - Run PR Bot (Political Reversion) every 1 hour. |
| 🔴 | PF Bot (4h) | inactive |
f.timer - Run PF Bot (Political Fundamentals) every 4 hours (5min after scorer). |
| 🟢 | Dashboard Deploy (30m) | active |
systemd[1799]: Started dashboard.timer - Regenerate dashboard every 30 minutes. |
| 🟢 | Daily CEO Report (07:00) | active |
d[1799]: Started daily-report.timer - Daily CEO report at 07:00 UTC (08:00 CET). |
| 🔴 | Position Monitor (15m) | inactive |
ystemd[1799]: Stopped position-monitor.timer - Check positions every 15 minutes. |
| Check | Status | Details | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 | services | OK |
— |
| 🔴 | timers | CRITICAL |
Timer signal-scanner is inactive (not active) · Timer position-monitor is inactive (not active) · Timer market-intelligence is inactive (not active) (+1 more) |
| 🟢 | freshness | OK |
— |
| 🟢 | integrity | OK |
— |
| 🟢 | cadence | OK |
— |
| 🟢 | dashboard | OK |
— |
| 🟢 | memory | OK |
— |
| Status | Strategy | Trades | Closed | WR | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KILLED | CAL-M1: Fade Favorites Buy NO on overpriced favorites (crypto >60¢, politics/econ >80-85¢). |
27 | 15 | 26.7% | -$20.04 |
| KILLED | CAL-M2: Trump Longshots Buy YES on Trump longshot markets (20-40¢ range). |
27 | 15 | 26.7% | -$20.04 |
| KILLED | CAL-M3: Falling Favorites Buy NO on favorites with downward price momentum. |
27 | 15 | 26.7% | -$20.04 |
| KILLED | CAL-M4: Sports Favorites Sports market favorites — fading overpriced YES/NO outcomes. |
27 | 15 | 26.7% | -$20.04 |
| KILLED | Time Decay Sniper Near-certainty mispricing near expiry. 95%+ WR backtest. Crypto micro-markets excluded. |
26 | 12 | 75.0% | -$2.62 |
| KILLED | Mention Arbitrage Buys YES on mention markets with high evidence scores. |
19 | 2 | 100.0% | +$239.22 |
| KILLED | Sports Overround Scanner Sports overround execution bot. Scanner detects mispriced events; bot fades overpriced YES outcomes by buying NO. |
0 | 0 | — | $0.00 |
| ARCHIVED | Strategy 1B v2 (no max entry) 25/25 WR but avg entry 94.7¢ = BE WR 95%. Capped at 0.95 in v3. |
0 | 0 | — | $0.00 |
| ARCHIVED | Strategy 1B v1 (pre-bugfix) No min entry, dupes allowed, 5m enabled. 14 neutral exits from bad entries. |
0 | 0 | — | $0.00 |
| KILLED | Strategy A — 90¢+ Scalper Killed Feb 26. Correct thesis, wrong infra. Sub-second execution needed. |
4 | 4 | 100.0% | +$1.09 |
| KILLED | Strategy C — Catalyst Calendar Killed by backtest. No pre-catalyst drift — markets move ON event day, not before. |
0 | 0 | — | $0.00 |
| KILLED | Strategy B — Distribution Sniper Killed — only 2 multi-bucket markets in 25K dataset. No data to backtest. |
0 | 0 | — | $0.00 |
| KILLED | Strategy RC — Resolution Classifier Killed Feb 28 (Sprint 1). 0% WR on 3 closed trades. Data leakage in backtest. |
32 | 32 | 0.0% | $0.00 |
| KILLED | Strategy PR — Political Reversion Killed Feb 28 (Sprint 1). Reversion is 97-99% informed convergence, not noise. |
14 | 14 | 21.4% | +$0.80 |
| KILLED | Strategy PF — Political Fundamentals Killed Feb 28 (Sprint 1). Merged into Calibration Bot. |
7 | 7 | 0.0% | $0.00 |
| KILLED | Strategy UR — Universal Reversion Killed Feb 28 (Sprint 1). Broad reversion dead — 97-99% informed moves. |
25 | 25 | 12.0% | -$0.46 |
| KILLED | Strategy NM — New Market Mispricing Killed Feb 28 (Sprint 1). Merged into Calibration Bot. |
18 | 18 | 0.0% | $0.00 |
| KILLED | Strategy FF — Favorite Fade Killed Feb 28 (Sprint 1). Merged into Calibration Bot. |
8 | 8 | 0.0% | $0.00 |
| ARCHIVED | Info Velocity |
1 | 0 | — | $0.00 |
| KILLED | Political Macro |
11 | 0 | — | $0.00 |
| ARCHIVED | Cross-Platform Arb |
5 | 0 | — | $0.00 |